Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market

In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make predictions which turn out to be incorrect. We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may, somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun, only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner. We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success. We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of constructing the rule

Dynamics of former ice lobes of the southernmost Patagonian Ice Sheet based on a glacial landsystems approach

Reconstructions of former ice masses from glacial geomorphology help to constrain the nature and timing of glaciation in relation to climatic forcing. This paper presents a new reconstruction of the glacial history of five ice lobes in southernmost South America: the Bahía Inútil − San Sebastián, Magellan, Otway, Skyring and Río Gallegos ice lobes. We use previous geomorphological mapping of glacial landforms to reconstruct former glacial limits and proglacial lakes, demarcate flow-sets from the distribution of glacial lineations, and evaluate glacial landsystem signatures and their palaeoglaciological implications. Evidence suggests that the ice lobes predominantly reflect active temperate glacial landsystems, which may have switched to polythermal systems when periods of cold-based ice developed ephemerally. This complex landsystem signature implies that the ice lobes were sensitive to regional climate variability, with active re-advances during overall retreat of the ice margins. There is also evidence for periods of fast ice flow and possible surge-like activity in the region, followed by the rapid retreat or even collapse of some of the ice lobes in association with proglacial lakes. Constraining our new reconstruction with published chronological information suggests that at least some of the ice lobes advanced before the global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM: ca. 26.5–19 ka) during the last glacial cycle. Our new reconstruction demonstrates a more complex picture of ice dynamics than has previously been portrayed, and one in which the advance and retreat of the ice lobes was likely to have been primarily driven by changes in climate. As such, ice advances before the gLGM in the southernmost part of the Patagonian Ice Sheet are likely to indicate a wider climatic forcing at this time

Late Holocene relative sea levels near Palmer Station, northern Antarctic Peninsula, strongly controlled by late Holocene ice-mass changes

Many studies of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) changes across Antarctica assume that their reconstructions record uplift from glacial isostatic adjustment caused by the demise of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheets. However, recent analysis of GPS observations suggests that mantle viscosity beneath the Antarctic Peninsula is weaker than previously thought, which would imply that solid Earth motion is not controlled by post-LGM ice-sheet retreat but instead by late Holocene ice-mass changes. If this hypothesis is correct, one might expect to find Holocene RSL records that do not reflect a monotonic decrease in the rate of RSL fall but show variations in the rate of RSL change through the Holocene. We present a new record of late Holocene RSL change from Torgersen Island near Palmer Station in the western Antarctic Peninsula that shows an increase in the rate of relative sea-level fall from 3.0 ± 1.2 mm/yr to 5.1 ± 1.8 mm/yr during the late Holocene. Independent studies of the glacial history of the region provide evidence of ice-sheet changes over similar time scales that may be driving this change. When our RSL records are corrected for sea-surface height changes associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the rate of post-0.79 ka land uplift at Torgersen Island, 5.3 ± 1.8 mm/yr, is much higher than the rate of uplift recorded at a nearby GPS site at Palmer Station prior to the Larsen B breakup in 2002 AD (1998-2002 AD; <0.1 mm/yr), but similar to the rates observed after 2002 AD (2002-2013 AD; 6–9 mm/yr). This substantial variation in uplift rates further supports the hypothesis that Holocene RSL rates of change are recording responses to late Holocene and recent changes in local ice loading rather than a post-LGM signal across portions of the Antarctic Peninsula. Thus middle-to-late Holocene RSL data may not be an effective tool for constraining the size of the LGM ice sheet across portions of the Antarctic Peninsula underlain by weaker mantle. In addition, current global-scale GIA models are unable to predict our observed changes in late Holocene RSL. Complexities in Earth structure and neoglacial history need to be taken into consideration in GIA models used for correcting modern satellite-based observations of ice-mass loss

Glacial isostatic adjustment associated with the Barents Sea ice sheet: a modelling inter-comparison

The 3D geometrical evolution of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet (BSIS), particularly during its late-glacial retreat phase, remains largely ambiguous due to the paucity of direct marine- and terrestrial-based evidence constraining its horizontal and vertical extent and chronology. One way of validating the numerous BSIS reconstructions previously proposed is to collate and apply them under a wide range of Earth models and to compare prognostic (isostatic) output through time with known relative sea-level (RSL) data. Here we compare six contrasting BSIS load scenarios via a spherical Earth system model and derive a best-fit, χ2 parameter using RSL data from the four main terrestrial regions within the domain: Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and northern Norway. Poor χ2 values allow two load scenarios to be dismissed, leaving four that agree well with RSL observations. The remaining four scenarios optimally fit the RSL data when combined with Earth models that have an upper mantle viscosity of 0.2–2 × 1021 Pa s, while there is less sensitivity to the lithosphere thickness (ranging from 71 to 120 km) and lower mantle viscosity (spanning 1–50 × 1021 Pa s). GPS observations are also compared with predictions of present-day uplift across the Barents Sea. Key locations where relative sea-level and GPS data would prove critical in constraining future ice-sheet modelling efforts are also identified

Deglacial history of the Pensacola Mountains, Antarctica from glacial geomorphology and cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating

The retreat history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is important for understanding rapid deglaciation, as well as to constrain numerical ice sheet models and ice loading models required for glacial isostatic adjustment modelling. There is particular debate about the extent of grounded ice in the Weddell Sea embayment at the Last Glacial Maximum, and its subsequent deglacial history. Here we provide a new dataset of geomorphological observations and cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure ages of erratic samples that constrain the deglacial history of the Pensacola Mountains, adjacent to the present day Foundation Ice Stream and Academy Glacier in the southern Weddell Sea embayment. We show there is evidence of at least two glaciations, the first of which was relatively old and warm-based, and a more recent cold-based glaciation. During the most recent glaciation ice thickened by at least 450 m in the Williams Hills and at least 380 m on Mt Bragg. Progressive thinning from these sites was well underway by 10 ka BP and ice reached present levels by 2.5 ka BP, and is broadly similar to the relatively modest thinning histories in the southern Ellsworth Mountains. The thinning history is consistent with, but does not mandate, a Late Holocene retreat of the grounding line to a smaller-than-present configuration, as has been recently hypothesized based on ice sheet and glacial isostatic modelling. The data also show that clasts with complex exposure histories are pervasive and that clast recycling is highly site-dependent. These new data provide constraints on a reconstruction of the retreat history of the formerly-expanded Foundation Ice Stream, derived using a numerical flowband model

The geomorphological record of an ice stream to ice shelf transition in Northeast Greenland

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was funded through NERC Standard Grant NE/N011228/1. We thank the Alfred Wegner Institute, and particularly Angelika Humbert and Hicham Rafiq, for their logistic support through the iGRIFF project. Further support was provided from Station Nord (Jorgen Skafte), Nordland Air, Air Greenland, and the Joint Arctic Command. Naalakkersuisut, Government of Greenland, provided Scientific Survey (VU-00121) and Export (046/2017) licences for this work. We thank Chris Orton for help with production of figures. Finally, we would like to thank our Field Ranger Isak (after which Isakdalen is informally named) and dog Ooni for keeping us safe in the field. We thank Rob Storrar and an anonymous reviewer for their comments which helped improve the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Breastfeeding modifies the impact of diarrhoeal disease on relative weight: a longitudinal analysis of 2–12 month-old Filipino infants

Undernutrition and diarrhoeal disease are major causes of infant mortality. We investigated the combined roles of breastfeeding and diarrhoea on infant size in 2940 infants from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. The study aimed to assess whether breastfeeding status modified the deficits associated with diarrhoeal disease. The primary exposures were combinations of current breastfeeding status (yes/no), the presence of diarrhoeal disease in previous week (yes/no) and a categorical survey variable (six surveys taken at bimonthly intervals when infants were 2–12 months of age). Relative weight (weight-for-length z-scores), calculated using the WHO growth standards, was estimated using sex-stratified, fixed-effects longitudinal models that also adjusted for energy from complementary foods. Post-estimation Wald tests were conducted to identify subgroup differences in relative weight. Diarrhoea was associated with reduced relative weight in both breastfed and non-breastfed infants of 6–12 months. Diarrhoea-related deficits in relative weight were significantly exacerbated in non-breastfed girls of 6 and 8 months. Importantly, in infants <6 months, being breastfed and having diarrhoea was still associated with greater relative weight compared with being non-breastfed and diarrhoea-free. Breastfeeding emerged as a strong contributor to relative weight in younger infants (<6 months) while diarrhoeal disease strongly contributed to deficits in relative weight in older infants (6–12 months). These findings underscore the importance of breastfeeding for promoting infant nutritional status in infants with or without diarrhoea from birth to 12 months

Subglacial lakes and hydrology across the Ellsworth Subglacial Highlands, West Antarctica

Subglacial water plays an important role in ice sheet dynamics and stability. Subglacial lakes are often located at the onset of ice streams and have been hypothesised to enhance ice flow downstream by lubricating the ice– bed interface. The most recent subglacial-lake inventory of Antarctica mapped nearly 400 lakes, of which ∼ 14 % are found in West Antarctica. Despite the potential importance of subglacial water for ice dynamics, there is a lack of detailed subglacial-water characterisation in West Antarctica. Using radio-echo sounding data, we analyse the ice–bed interface to detect subglacial lakes. We report 33 previously uncharted subglacial lakes and present a systematic analysis of their physical properties. This represents a ∼ 40 % increase in subglacial lakes in West Antarctica. Additionally, a new digital elevation model of basal topography of the Ellsworth Subglacial Highlands was built and used to create a hydropotential model to simulate the subglacial hydrological network. This allows us to characterise basal hydrology, determine subglacial water catchments and assess their connectivity. We show that the simulated subglacial hydrological catchments of the Rutford Ice Stream, Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier do not correspond to their ice surface catchments

Applying spatial reasoning to topographical data with a grounded geographical ontology

Grounding an ontology upon geographical data has been pro- posed as a method of handling the vagueness in the domain more effectively. In order to do this, we require methods of reasoning about the spatial relations between the regions within the data. This stage can be computationally expensive, as we require information on the location of points in relation to each other. This paper illustrates how using knowledge about regions allows us to reduce the computation required in an efficient and easy to understand manner. Further, we show how this system can be implemented in co-ordination with segmented data to reason abou

Drawing Arrangement Graphs In Small Grids, Or How To Play Planarity

We describe a linear-time algorithm that finds a planar drawing of every graph of a simple line or pseudoline arrangement within a grid of area O(n^{7/6}). No known input causes our algorithm to use area \Omega(n^{1+\epsilon}) for any \epsilon>0; finding such an input would represent significant progress on the famous k-set problem from discrete geometry. Drawing line arrangement graphs is the main task in the Planarity puzzle.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures. To appear at 21st Int. Symp. Graph Drawing, Bordeaux, 201